(M)ost (V)ulnerable (L)eader
Vachier-Lagrave stumbles out of the gate, Nepomniatchi is a point clear of the field
First things first: I have to issue a bit of a mea culpa and a retraction. When I wrote my candidates preview on Sunday, I was tired, and it was late. I seem to have mixed up the schedule of events, somehow, and I had indicated that the first rest day was on Wednesday, April 21st. Of course, Round 10 was on Wednesday, April 21st, and the first rest day is actually today, April 22nd. For anyone who slept in and missed any action Wednesday morning on account of my mistake, please understand that I did what I did in consultation with medical health professionals in an attempt to assure that you would get enough rest to care for yourselves properly. (I just goofed it up).
In any case, the remaining schedule is actually as follows:
Friday, April 23rd: Round 11
Saturday, April 24th: Round 12
Sunday, April 25th: Rest Day #2
Monday, April 26th: Round 13
Tuesday, April 27th: Round 14
Wednesday, April 28th: If needed, tiebreaks. Closing Ceremonies
I double checked this time.
Predictions Time!
Despite that I didn’t know the schedule, the early indications are that I got a couple of things right in the predictions section. Of course, the second half of the candidates is less than halfway over, so I’m only going to take less than half of a victory lap here:
Ian Nepomniatchi will be candidates’ champion, and Magnus’s next challenger. On Wednesday, Nepomniatchi dispatched Alekseenko with ease, having somehow tricked the young Russian into an opening move order that he was unfamiliar with. Alekseenko missed some of the finer points of the system Nepo employed, (1. c4 2. g3) and ran into trouble almost immediately. As a result, Nepo is a full point ahead of his closest rivals Caruana, Giri, and Vachier-Lagrave with only 4 rounds left to play. On Friday, Nepo has the white pieces against Caruana, and presumably he will happily take no unnecessary chances. A draw will suit him just fine. On Monday, Ian will come out of a rest day with the white pieces against Vachier-Lagrave, who’s preparation with the black pieces has been called into question already in rounds 8 and 9.
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave will miss the podium. It pains me to say it, but this ominous prediction also appears to be bearing some fruit. Maxime’s task at the resumption of the candidates was daunting to be sure - he had the black pieces against world #2 Fabiano Caruana in Round 8, and the black pieces against world #3 Ding Liren in Round 9. But he showed that questions about his opening preparation leading into the event were, perhaps, right on the nose. Fabiano surprised him and achieved an excellent position by uncorking an astonishing novelty in the Sicilian Najdorf that involved a piece sacrifice. MVL’s defenses were tested for over 7 hours Monday, and in the end, he failed to find the proper fortress construction to secure a draw, down the exchange in a difficult ending. On Tuesday, MVL was pushed to the breaking point again. Ding Liren offered an entertaining knight sacrifice right out of the opening against MVL’s Grunfeld Defense. This time, Vachier-Lagrave was able to hold the draw, but he will have been exhausted after two 7-hour games in a row. On Wednesday, he might have achieved a slightly better position against Giri, but the fight had gone out of him and the game was quickly drawn. The loss right out of the gate has dealt a serious blow to MVL’s candidates’ hopes, and he now finds himself tied with Caruana and Giri at 5.5/10, a full point off the lead.
Giri is in fine form. I predicted a second place finish for Anish, mostly on the strength of his recent form, but somewhat handicapped by the fact that he trailed the leaders, Ian Nepomniatchi and Maxime Vachier-Lagrave, by a full point at the resumption of the event. On Tuesday, Giri got everything he wanted out of a Catalan structure against Wang Hao, and played an excellent positional game until Wang Hao collapsed rather suddenly. Giri took home the full point, after drawing with ease with the black pieces against Nepomniatchi on Monday, and against MVL on Wednesday. Friday’s game, with the white pieces against Ding Liren, will be one that Giri wants to take a full point from. Of course, Ding Liren is the 3rd highest rated player in the world, but he’s near the bottom of the crosstable in this event, with 4/10, and he’s already lost against Nepomniatchi and Vachier-Lagrave. If Giri wants to challenge Magnus, he’ll have to fight for full points in his remaining games with the white pieces. I’m expecting a full blooded struggle.
Caruana is a wizard in classical time controls. I gave the nod to Giri over Caruana in my prediction piece; purely on the strength of recent practice, where Giri has been playing (and winning) against the top guys in online rapid-play, Caruana has been in the lab perfecting his opening preparation. We saw the best of it on Monday, when he dealt MVL’s title hopes a near fatal blow. On Tuesday, he pushed with black against Alekseenko, and despite the youth’s shaky technique, Fabiano only achieved a draw. That Alekseenko rolled over against Nepo in the very next round does nothing for Fabi’s chances. On Wednesday, Fabi and Ding Liren agreed the game drawn after 40 moves in a Ruy Lopez where it seemed neither side ever got their hopes up too much.
Everyone else is out of it. Grischuk and Wang Hao are 2 full points back, with only 4 rounds to go, and it’s just too much. At this point the rest of the field exists is there simply to play spoiler for the guys at the top. That Caruana failed to win against Alekseenko while Nepo took home the full point easily is going to loom large in the final tally. On Monday and Tuesday of next week Giri has black against Grischuk and white against Alekseenko. He’ll want a win in the final round, but he might absolutely need one if he wants to catch up to Nepo.
Big Games Coming Up:
Ian Nepomniatchi vs. Fabiano Caruana (Friday, April 23rd). This *should* be a pivotal game. The problem, as far as the fans are concerned, is that Nepo would be absolutely, completely satisfied with a draw. At this level, it’s very difficult to mix things up with the black pieces without taking unnecessary risks, and this is not yet a “must win” game for Caruana. It would probably be more accurate to say that it’s a “can’t lose” game for Caruana. He has the white pieces against Giri on Saturday, and he has the white pieces against Grischuk on Monday, Caruana will be out for blood in those.
Anish Giri vs. Ding Liren (Friday, April 23rd). The fans will need something to watch if Nepo-Fabi peters out quickly tomorrow. I suspect that it will be Giri going for broke against Liren. No disrespect to Ding Liren, the third best player in the world, but there aren’t many rounds left and Giri has the white pieces. If he wants to win (and he does) he’ll have to win.
Fabiano Caruana vs. Anish Giri (Saturday, April 24th). No easy draw for Anish here, Fabi needs to win some games too, and in this one he has the white pieces. If, as I suspect, Nepo is content that every draw he achieves brings him one round closer to victory, the game between Fabi and Giri on Saturday might literally be the one game to watch from here on out. A full blooded struggle between two titans who are still within striking distance of the lead. The result of this game may well determine whether or not Nepo loses any sleep for worry between now and next Tuesday.
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave vs. Kirill Alekseenko (Saturday, April 24th). I’ve been harsh, but MVL is still tied with Fabi and Giri. He’s not out of it yet, but he’ll need to win with the white pieces against the lowest rated player in the tournament on Saturday. He’ll simply have to.
Ian Nepomniatchi vs. Maxime Vachier-Lagrave (Monday, April 26th). The intrigue on the final day will be all about the tournament situation. Nepo has black against Ding Liren, Caruana and Giri both have the white pieces on the final day. If either one is within a half point of the lead, they will surely feel they have every right to expect a win to earn them a spot in the tiebreak. Of course, the intrigue could only be ratcheted up if Nepo were to stumble at some point en between now and Tuesday. And then, if MVL wants to prove that he’s being counted out to early, what better way to do it than taking matters into his own hands and scalping the tournament leader? Hm?
The whole final day (Tuesday, April 27th). Of course it all depends what the cross-table looks like by then. In this tournament, nobody cares too much for second place.
What Exactly Did Fabi do to MVL? Game of the Mid-Week:
Fabiano Caruana vs. Maxime Vachier-Lagrave (1-0) 2021 Fide Candidates’ Tournament, Round 8
e4 c5 2. Nf3 d6 3. d4 cxd4 4. Nxd4 Nf6 5. Nc3 a6 6. Bg5 e6 7. f4 Qb6 8. Qd2 Qxb2 (diagram)
If this position rings any bells with loyal readers of Check., that would be because we reviewed the game Fabiano Caruana vs. Maxime Vachier-Lagrave from Tata Steel earlier this year, and Fabiano absolutely destroyed MVL in the same variation. Of course, MVL never varies his opening choices. What’s so astonishing about his insistence on this variation at the highest level of the game is not merely that he’s the only player so stubborn, but that the Najdorf “Poisoned Pawn” variation is so dangerous, and so sharp, and so well suited to computer analysis, that MVL seems to just be guaranteeing that he’s going to run into nasty surprises every time he does this. And he does. And he’s STILL holding serve most of the time against the world elite. I don’t want people to get the wrong impression, it’s remarkable. I’m a fan. But I have some sympathy for the man, this principled quest must be exhausting.
Rb1 Qa3 10. e5 (quite a normal move, together with 10. f5, this is one of the “main” lines. At the Tata Steel tournament, Fabi preferred 10. Be2, and had surprises cooked up there, too.) 10. … h6 11. Bh4 dxe5 12. fxe5 Nfd7 (In recent practice, 12. … Nfd7 has been preferred to the old main line, 12. … g5) 13. Ne4 Qxa2 (13. … Nxe5?? 14. Nb5! with the dual threat of mate on d8 and Nxa3. The queen is not pawn hunting, it’s looking for a way to get back to the defense of the black king, and the d5 square, via a2, beckons) 14. Rd1 Qd5 15. Qe3 Qxe5 (Again, 15. … Nxe5? and black runs into problems along the d-file. 16. Nb3! and black can resign) 16. c3!? (diagram)
Believe it or not, up to this point, we’re well within the bounds of “theory.” MVL has had the position after 15. … Qxe5 on the board, himself. He’s won from this position, actually. 16. Be2 is the “normal” move, here, but 16. c3 is also Stockfish approved. It’s not, technically, a “novelty,” because it’s been played before, once, in an obscure correspondence game. But it is strange, at least at first glance.
MVL thought for a while in this position, but in the end he played simple, straightforward chess. He needs to get castled, which means he needs to develop the f8 bishop. The c5 square suggests itself, and that’s what MVL played:
… Bc5 (The computer prefers the awkward looking sequence 16. … Be7 17. Bxe7 Kxe7, but leaving the king in the center like this looks suicidal to me, and I suppose MVL agreed. The “problem” with … Bc5 is that, suddenly, the black queen on e5 is short of squares)
Bg3!?
Fabiano was playing instantly here, this was clearly preparation, there was no subtlety about it whatsoever. If anything, he wanted MVL to know that he was playing against Stockfish-approved lines. I can’t imagine the pressure you’d feel to defend such a position against Fabiano, playing prepared moves.
… Qd5 (where else?)
Bc4!!? But this was a “true novelty.” The game we were following up to this point went 18. Bd6!? (diagram)
Say one thing for Fabiano, say he’s confident. I know that he’s worked out these lines from home, but still: the first day the candidates’ has resumed and he’s lit a whole bishop on fire right out of the opening. What’s more - after 18. … Qxc4 his own king is stuck in the center of the board. And he’s already down two pawns! Clearly Caruana was not interested in a draw.
I’m going to be brutally honest and say I don’t really even know what to say about this position. I’m basically just going to show you what happened next.
… Qxc4 19. Bd6 Nf6!? (19. … Bxd6?? 20. Nxd6+ forks the king and queen. After the game, Fabiano said he was a bit disappointed that Caruana found 19. … Nf6, which is not an easy move to find, but is one of the better defensive tries in the position.) 20. Nxc5 Nd5 21. Qe5 Rg8 22. Ndxe6!! (diagram)
It’s just one haymaker after another. Of course, a knight sacrifice on e6 was “in the air,” but this is all coming at MVL quite quickly.
… fxe6 23. Nxe6 Qxc3+ (MVL gets the queens off the board forthwith) 24. Qxc3 Nxc3 25. Nc7+ Kf7 26. Rd3 (diagram)
Here, black has a choice. To give up the a8 rook or the c3 knight? Of course, a rook is worth more than a knight, but after 26. … Ra7 it feels that the black king may be in a little trouble . The computer seems to prefer this variation, and in some lines, the rook activates itself along the 7th rank after the b-pawn moves. For a human, it feels that the black king may be a bit unsafe. 27. Rxc3 Kg6! and the king can find a home on h7.
MVL chose to give up the rook in order to bring the c3 knight back into the defense of his king. Unfortunately, after this, he’s simply worse. For the rest of the game, MVL is trying to find drawing chances in an endgame down an exchange:
… Ne4?! 27. 0-0+ Kg6 28. Nxa8 Nc6 29. Nb6 Rd8 30. Nxc8 Rxc8 31. Ba3 Rc7 32. Rf4 Nf6 (diagram)
For a great many moves, from this point, Fabiano Caruana is simply trying to press his material advantage, win black’s queenside pawns, and take home the full point. He makes slow progress, and I’m presenting the moves mostly without comment. There is instructive chess in there, for those who want to do a deeper analysis of the game, but for the most part, I’ll be fast forwarding to a crucial moment towards the end:
Bb2 Ne7 34. Bxf6 gxf6 35. h4 h5 36. Rg3+ Kf7 37. Rg5 Rc1+ 38. Kh2 Ng6 39. Rf2 Nxh4 40. Rxh5 Ng6 41. Rh7+ Ke6 42. Rxb7 Ne5 43. Rb6+ Rc6 44. Rxc6+ Nxc6 45. Kg3 Kf7 46. Rc2 Nb4 47. Rd2 Nc6 48. Kf4 Kg6 49. Rd6 Ne5 50. Rxa6 Nf7 51. Ke4 (diagram)
In this position, Alejandro Ramirez, who was commentating on the St. Louis Chess Club stream of the game, noted that black has a drawing fortress after the move 51. … Ng5+. Simply put, the knight can go back and forth between g5 and f7, and the king cannot be pushed away from g6, where it defends the pawn. There’s nothing white can do about it. But fortresses are notoriously difficult to assess, during a game, unless you know for a fact that one exists. Famously, Magnus Carlsen has said, “I don’t believe in fortresses,” because it always seems there’s some way to break one down that nobody would have expected. In this case, Alejandro was quoting from one of Benko’s endgame books, and 51. … Ng5+ is, indeed, a drawing fortress. Caruana said after the game he wasn’t sure, and Maxime, of course, did not find it. MVL can still draw after the move played in the game, but the drawing path is much more narrow, and there are more ways to go wrong. Ultimately, he found one of them:
… Nh6 52. Ra5 Nf7 53. Ra3 Nd6+ 54. Kf4 Nf5 55. Rd3 Nh6 56. Rg3+ Kf7 (the blakc king has been forced off of g6) 57. Ke4 Ng8 58. Kf5 Ne7+ 59. Kf4 Nd5+ 60. Kg4 Kg6 61. Kf3+ Kf7 62. Ke4 Ne7 63. Kf4 Nd5+ 64. Kf5 Ne7+ 65. Ke4 Ng8 66. Rh3 Kg6 67. Ra3 Kf7 68. Kf4 Nh6 69. Rg3 Ng8 70. Kg4 Ne7 71. Kh5 (and now it’s all over) Nd5 72. Rf3 Ke6 73. g4 Ke5 74. Kg6 resigns (1-0).
An amazing display from Fabiano, and a bit of shaky endgame technique from MVL. Neither player knew for sure that black had a fortress after 51. … Ng5+, only Alejandro Ramirez in the commentator’s booth seemed to have that one committed to memory, but the fact remains that MVL was outplayed in a technical endgame and he’ll be kicking himself after the game. This is the Candidates’ tournament, after all, and there’s nobody else to blame for gaps in endgame knowledge and poor technique.
In any case, well played Fabi! An absolute banger of a game. And we get back to it first thing, tomorrow morning!
Here’s hoping we have some decisive results to talk about at the next rest day, Sunday. Incidentally, if you like reading these, feel free to subscribe (it’s free), hit like, shoot me an email (JensenUVA@gmail.com) or DM on twitter @JensenUVA.